FOR-TAR-31

Price Target Forecasting

Price Forecasting Tools

CHF 54.00 /month

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Includes

Price Target Forecasting module
Control study

Forecasting Probability Sierra Chart

Description

Connects to any signal output in Sierra Chart and answers the question: when this signal has appeared historically, how far did price typically move?

The module analyses all historical occurrences of the selected signal, then displays three probability-based price targets directly on the chart at every new trigger.

Probability Levels

Level	Meaning
84% target	Price reached at least this far in ~84% of historical cases — conservative expectation
50% target	Average price movement — median historical outcome
16% target	Only ~16% of cases turned before here — aggressive/maximum expectation

These levels adjust for real market distributions. Non-normal outcomes are handled with three distribution methods: Auto, Cornish-Fisher (moderate skew), and Strictly Monotonic (extreme fat tails).

What You See on the Chart

Trigger marker with sequential number at each signal — track sample size as it grows
Probability bar showing the three target levels
Distribution histogram — 20-bin frequency visualization of historical outcomes
Statistical metrics — mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis per signal

Sample Size and Confidence

Triggers	Interpretation
1–10	Preliminary — statistics forming
10–30	Pattern emerging — levels becoming meaningful
30+	Statistically significant
100+	High confidence — robust foundation

Technical Details

Processes backward through ~250,000 historical bars
Calculation time ~20 ms on a modern PC at full history
All historical occurrences visible on chart for review
Non-repainting — historical markers remain fixed

Requirements

Sierra Chart trading platform
Level 1 tick-by-tick data with bar timestamps
ofv Control Study (included)
A signal source — any study subgraph works; OrderFlowViz signal generation products are recommended